Richard Perrin explained that the basic definition of productivity is output divided by input. He noted that the growth of productivity is more important than any particular level itself. A more comprehensive measure is multiple-factor productivity (MFP), defined as an index of outputs over an index of inputs. The productivity numerator includes only measurable outputs that contribute to human welfare, and the denominator considers only measureable inputs that we think are important. Productivity growth can help gauge progress toward future food security, given the limited potential for increasing resources. For the food producing sector, Perrin noted, these basic resources include land, water, and natural resources and critical factors such as climate and ecological resilience. The supply of other inputs, including labor and chemicals, seems to be in sufficiently elastic that they would not hinder food security in the future. It is the basic resource productivity that will matter.

Growth in Food Demand versus Growth in Productivity: A commonly accepted estimate of the increase in food demand by 2050, developed by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), is 70 percent (Table I 3-1).

TABLE I 3-1 World Food Demand Growth, 2010-2050

Conceptually, a productivity growth rate of 1.34 percent is not a necessary condition for achieving the 70 percent goal. But this growth rate implies that 70 percent more could be produced by 2050 with the current resources devoted to agriculture. If the growth rate were lower, additional resources would be required if demand growth were to be met. Perrin noted that it is not certain that these rates will persist, and unfortunately, the available measures of MFP are not measures of the productivity of those resources that are most likely to be limiting—land, water and natural resources.

Regards,                                                                                                           
Angelina Matthew,

Journal Coordinator,

Global Journal of Agricultural Economics and Econometrics
Email ID: gjaee@scholarlynote.com